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The Ashes may offer a reason to cheer, but this series will also see the Aussie side celebrate a greater number of birthdays than an arcade in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald had his thirty-first birthday a day prior to the team was announced. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day before the Perth Test. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is over.

Ageing Team Fascination Builds

For two or three years there has been growing fascination with the average age of this team and especially the bowling attack. It is rare to have almost every player near a Test side being above thirty, except for novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that greater age was a problem: a Test team boasting a four-bowler lineup with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a weakness, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are well into their professional lives.

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Perhaps what most amplified the talking point is that the reserve players over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their thirties. Emerging pacemen have floated into teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injury, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Transition Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the core four plus Boland have continued backing up. Any side knows that having a batch of similarly-aged players might mean a group of simultaneous retirements, but so far change has remained hypothetical: a train that would indeed be coming round the bend when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet steamed into view.

Now, suddenly, transition is upon them, forced upon this Australian squad in the span of a few weeks. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would probably only miss the opening match, was the Cricket Australia view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the team balance experiences a far greater shift with two players absent rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the balance and control that allows Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a weapon of attack. Losing both of them means a major adjustment in the balance of the side. Boland taking the new ball is nothing new in his first-class career, but he has been so successful in Test matches coming on after seven to eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.

Debutant Confronts Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself won’t be an intimidated youngster, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A full stadium crowd, half of it English, for the opening Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many newspaper profiles portray him as laid-back. He could be wheeled onto the ground on a banana lounge and still be nervous.

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Who knows, it might all go smoothly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not. What is striking is how rapidly Australia have moved from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. It's unclear what further injuries the opening match may cause. It's unknown whether Cummins will be fit for the Brisbane Test, and good to back up after that match, given how complicated stress injuries can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be out, with a history of going down early in series and a pattern of initially small injuries turning into extended absences.

Outlook Unclear

The latter part of the series may witness the main four bowlers back together and all going well. Or it might experience transition beginning much earlier than the long-term aim of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is apparently next in line and could be a great pink-ball Brisbane choice, but after that with choices unclear. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also injured and has never played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm put back on, and this level is not the place for easing into one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and throughout it a chance for the opposing side. You can hear that train approaching, rolling round the corner, and England ain’t seen the success since they don’t know when.