🔗 Share this article

Two days remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

With the help of CricViz, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the perceived challenge of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an series opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The issue in {day-night matches|