Starmer's Allies Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.

Significant Obstacles in the Selection Procedure

Several figures on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are anxious to avoid any future leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.