How Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian presidential summit have been overstated, it seems.
Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
- Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed
The on-again, off-again meeting is another twist in the president's efforts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.
During a speech in the North African country last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.
However, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing several years.
Less Leverage
According to Witkoff, the key to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's move to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave the president leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his first term, encompassing his decision to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, Trump has much less influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.
Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - only to then retreat in the face of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.
The president loves to tout his ability to meet and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the war any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
During the summer, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that the president would approve on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently delayed.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then touted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The next day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.
Trump maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he said.
But the Ukrainian leader later commented on the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he stated.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately decided on advocating a truce along present frontlines – something Russia has rejected.
On the campaign trail previously, Trump vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, saying that concluding the war is proving more difficult than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when both parties desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.