Foreign Office Cautioned Regarding Military Action to Topple Robert Mugabe

Recently released papers show that the Foreign Office advised against British military intervention to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "serious option".

Policy Papers Show Considerations on Addressing a "Remarkably Robust" Dictator

Internal documents from the then Prime Minister's government indicate officials weighed up options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old dictator, who refused to step down as the country descended into violence and economic chaos.

Faced with the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential options.

Isolation Strategy Deemed Ineffective

Diplomats concluded that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and building an international agreement for change was failing, having failed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Options outlined in the files included:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the approach supported by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from conflicts abroad that altering a government and/or its bad policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The FCO paper dismissed military action as not a "serious option," adding that "The only nation for leading such a military operation is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Warnings of Heavy Casualties and Legal Hurdles

It warned that military involvement would cause heavy casualties and have "considerable implications" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a severe human and political catastrophe – resulting in massive violence, significant exodus of refugees, and regional instability – we assess that no African state would agree to any attempts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The document continues: "We also believe that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would authorise or join military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Long-Term Strategy Advocated

The Prime Minister's advisor, Laurie Lee, warned him that Zimbabwe "could become a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been ruled out, "it is likely necessary that we must play the longer game" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, writing: "We should work out a way of revealing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then afterwards, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a firm agreement."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

The Zimbabwean leader was finally deposed in a military takeover in 2017, at the age of 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure Thabo Mbeki into joining a armed alliance to overthrow Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the former UK premier.